Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
1.5 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 7:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 13%Leader of 7 outcomes
December 31 13%Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$131.4
Liquidity
$11.2K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$12.9K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
62
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 17, 26, 9:51 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
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April 30Lost
August 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
July 31Lost
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June 30Lost
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March 31Lost
May 31Lost
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- Fees:
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Market depth · December 31
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
- For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered.
- Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
- Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately.