2026 Midterms: Will Trump leave office OR will a family member be indicted OR will Dems win Senate before 1/20/29?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionCrime & Justice2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJul 17, 26, 1:08 PM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if any of the following three conditions occur at any point between July 17, 2026, and 12:00 PM EST on January 20, 2029:
- Donald Trump leaves office: Donald J. Trump ceases to hold the office of President of the United States.
- This includes resignation, removal via impeachment conviction, removal under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, or death.
- Family member indicted: Melania Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, Eric Trump, Tiffany Trump, Barron Trump, or Jared Kushner is formally indicted on state or federal criminal charges (or if a criminal information is filed by prosecutors).
- Civil lawsuits or civil complaints do not qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2026 Midterms: Will Trump leave office OR will a family member be indicted OR will Dems win Senate before 1/20/29??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 2026 Midterms: Will Trump leave office OR will a family member be indicted OR will Dems win Senate before 1/20/29? resolve?
- 2026 Midterms: Will Trump leave office OR will a family member be indicted OR will Dems win Senate before 1/20/29? is scheduled to resolve on January 19, 2029.
- How is 2026 Midterms: Will Trump leave office OR will a family member be indicted OR will Dems win Senate before 1/20/29? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria