Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
6.0 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East2mo
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7d Change
-5.5 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 10:17 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
- Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.