Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo clear controller 54.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 26, 6:44 PM UTCDec 10, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRules
Similar to this: https://manifold.markets/VicRose/will-us-take-control-of-strait-of-h
Open markets
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- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
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- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No clear controller at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026? resolve?
- Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 10, 2026.
- How is Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Similar to this: https://manifold.markets/VicRose/will-us-take-control-of-strait-of-h