KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: October 23 (14%)
Resolved: Oct 28, 2026, 2:23 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
October 23
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
14%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
October 1915%
October 2314%
October 201%
October 2134%
October 2212%
October 241%
October 21Lost
October 19Lost
October 23Won
October 22Lost
October 25Lost
October 20Lost
October 24Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz Traffic Percentage On?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Oct 23, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Rules for each outcome
- October 21
- If Oct 21, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 19
- If Oct 19, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 23
- If Oct 23, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 22
- If Oct 22, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 25
- If Oct 25, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 20
- If Oct 20, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 24
- If Oct 24, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.