Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 4:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastJune 30th 36.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleMar 26, 26, 7:17 AMDec 31, 26, 8:17 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
April 30th5%
Volume trend
$25Jul 222d of dataJul 23
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Resolves to https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
- Based on the ratio of the 7 day moving average to the one from the year prior on the listed date.
- If the ratio is >1, resolves to 100%.
- On May 31st, let's say the 7 day moving average was reported to be 14 and the one from the year prior is 100.
- Then this option resolves to 14%.
- I will round to the nearest percentage point.