FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No NATO member 67%Leader of 3 outcomes
No NATO member 67%Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.4K
Low liquidityTraders
21
Comments
4
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This event predicts whether any of the listed countries will deploy military personnel into Ukrainian territory (including territories in dispute between Ukraine and Russia) at any point between January 1, 2026, 00:00:00 UTC and December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC (the “Market Period”).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official public confirmation by the respective government or its Ministry of Defense (or equivalent national military authority) that its troops have been sent into Ukraine in a military, training, combat, or peacekeeping capacity.
- Personnel must be operating inside Ukraine; deployments solely in neighboring countries do not count, and military aid/arms shipments or non-military personnel (e.g., diplomats, humanitarian workers) are insufficient.
- If the PDS is delayed, unclear, or conflicting, Futuur will seek confirmation via the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): corroboration from major, editorially independent news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) clearly reporting the deployment based on official statements and/or credible public records.
- The markets will resolve to “Yes” once a qualifying deployment is first verifiably confirmed during the Market Period; otherwise, the markets will resolve to “No” after the Market Period ends.
- Futuur will prioritize the substantive outcome and market intent over minor technicalities in how sources present information, and Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation if a fair determination becomes impossible.