PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability2026 9%+1.0%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$18.3K
Liquidity
$45.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 10.0%
Spread
25.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jan 31, 25, 11:41 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
20269%
Related Markets
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (June 29 - July 5)
$92.1AI / Artificial Intelligence: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?
$53.1Yes: 7%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
First overseas visit of the next UK PM?
$63.8USA 🇺🇸: 10%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
$0Yes: 6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
$0Yes: 20.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?
$0Yes: 12%
KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Russia steps up strikes as Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2026 odds to 11.5%Blockchain.News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.News
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
Zelenskyy touts repeat Ufa strike as Polymarket lifts Eizenkot to 40.55%Blockchain.NewsIran signals talks stalled, Polymarket odds fall to 14.5% on Hormuz normalcyBlockchain.News
Ukraine reports Crimea strikes as Polymarket puts 2026 recapture odds at 13.5%Blockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.
- For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above.
- Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution).
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.