NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by which date?
0.8 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
2026 · —
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Stored reference
2026 5%Leader of 3 outcomes
2026 5%Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$102.7
Liquidity
$18K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$4.1K
Bid / Ask
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2026Spread
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Comments
14
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 31, 25, 11:41 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
2025Lost
June 30, 2026Lost
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Source: Polymarket
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Market depth · 2026
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.
- For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above.
- Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution).
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
