PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31, 33%+5.0pt
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.3K
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
13.7% / 19.8%
Spread
6.1 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+8.8 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 11:58 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?
PolymarketNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
PolymarketWill there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?
Manifold MarketsYemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia enter Yemen for combat-related military purposes by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by Saudi Arabia; 2) be publicly acknowledged to have entered Yemen for a combat-related military purpose.
- For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above.
- Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however infantry engaging Yemeni forces, or personnel conducting combat operations from Yemeni soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution).
- Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+1.1pt97%
- September 25-4.0pt85%
- September 30-2.0pt78%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $765.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt60%
- October 3135%
- September 309%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $297.6K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.5pt21%
- October 31+4.0pt14%
- September 30+1.6pt4%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- No Meeting by September 30+0.2pt88.9%
- USA-1.1pt9.1%
- Switzerland+0.3pt1%
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31, at 33% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by which date? resolve?
- Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by which date? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia enter Yemen for combat-related military purposes by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.