PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAugust 31 32%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$18.9K
Liquidity
$32.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.1% / 3.8%
Spread
0.7 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-12.1 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 10:21 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
August 3132%
Large trades
$1.2k87.0%POLYMARKETIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by July 21? — NoTulipoII10d ago
POLYMARKETIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by July 21? — NoTulipoII10d agoVolume trend
$18.9kJul 822d of dataJul 29
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.