PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 1:33 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 20%Leader of 7 outcomes
December 31 20%Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$61.1
Liquidity
$12.2K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$4.5K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
4
7d Change
-2.6 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 14, 26, 12:32 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
July 14Lost
July 21Lost
July 31Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
PolymarketTurkey military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketPakistan military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketWhat will be the highest level of U.S. military action against Cuba by the end of January 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Yemen.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.