PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityJuly 31 4%-4.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$20.1K
Liquidity
$51.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.1% / 3.9%
Spread
25.8%
Wide spread7d Change
-11.5%
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 12:32 AMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
July 314%
Volume trend
$20.1kJul 1413d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
$2.6MJuly 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Iran full airspace closure by which date?
$220.9KAugust 31: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$157.2KYes: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
$22.1KBefore Jan 1, 2027: 20%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the IDF fight against Abu Shabab (a Palestinian militia they supplied with weapons) by the end of 2026?
$500Yes: 18.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)
$268.22023: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Yemen.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.