PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 4, 2026, 11:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 10%Leader of 3 outcomes
December 31 10%Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$962.5
Liquidity
$1.6K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$23.6K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 9, 26, 9:25 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by which date?
PolymarketFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketIsrael military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketTurkey military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketWhat will be the highest level of U.S. military action against Cuba by the end of January 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill both the House and Senate pass a resolution to limit military action in Iran?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Yemen.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.