PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 23%+5.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.8K
Liquidity
$22.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 9, 26, 9:25 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Yemen.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+1.1pt97%
- September 25-4.0pt85%
- September 30-2.0pt78%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $765.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt60%
- October 3135%
- September 309%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $297.6K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.5pt21%
- October 31+4.0pt14%
- September 30+1.6pt4%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- No Meeting by September 30+0.2pt88.9%
- USA-1.1pt9.1%
- Switzerland+0.3pt1%
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Pakistan military action against Yemen by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 23% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Pakistan military action against Yemen by which date? resolve?
- Pakistan military action against Yemen by which date? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Pakistan military action against Yemen by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time.