What will be the highest level of U.S. military action against Cuba by the end of January 31, 2027?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsLatin America3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo armed force 84.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+51.1 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 28, 26, 7:31 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves to the highest level reached by 11:59 PM ET on January 31, 2027.
- For this market, armed force occurs if the U.S. Armed Forces do any of the following without the Cuban government’s consent:
- Intentionally use weapons against Cuban government personnel or assets, or against any target in Cuban territory, territorial waters, or airspace
- Forcibly seize Cuban government personnel or assets as part of a military operation
- Physically enforce a blockade or quarantine of Cuba, or an exclusion zone over or around Cuba
- the named outcome if U.S. Armed Forces personnel physically enter land in Cuba outside Naval Station Guantánamo Bay, without the Cuban government’s consent, as part of a military operation.
