Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.1%
Forecasters
72
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 30, 26, 4:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest level of U.S. military action against Cuba by the end of January 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsCuban regime falls in 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market predicts whether Cuba’s current one-party communist regime ceases to govern the country before the end of 2026.
- For the purposes of this market, “regime collapse” refers to a loss of effective political control by the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), not merely protests, economic deterioration, or leadership reshuffles within the same power structure.
- ✅ Resolves YES if any of the following occur before December 31, 2026:
- The PCC formally loses its constitutional monopoly on power
- A non-PCC government (interim or permanent) assumes control of the Cuban state
- Miguel Díaz-Canel resigns, flees, or is removed and is not replaced by another PCC hardliner
