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Who will be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?

GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America5mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Miguel Díaz-Canel 55.5%+38.9%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

1

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

Jul 25, 26, 2:26 AMJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Miguel Díaz-Canel56%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

The leader is whoever the de facto leader of Cuba is, regardless of their specific job title.

Currently this is First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel.
If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
I intend to go by a similar standard to the late CIA World Factbook (RIP) or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.

Volume trend

$143

Jul 252d of dataJul 26

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Rules

The leader is whoever the de facto leader of Cuba is, regardless of their specific job title.

Currently this is First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel.
If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
I intend to go by a similar standard to the late CIA World Factbook (RIP) or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.