PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probabilityDecember 31 31%-0.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$28.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
30.0% / 31.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 6:50 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
31%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall80% match · verified | Medium | 6% | — | $714.3 | $291.6K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis pageMost active | Medium | 31% | — | $2.1K | $28.4K | 12 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
4d
-1.1pt6%
2%
1%
+1 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$611.4K
24h Vol$714.3
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.1kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.