PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 90.1%+2.5pt
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$38.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
15
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Mar 10, 26, 11:58 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba.
- This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC.
- A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
- Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Cuban regime falls in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 90% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Cuban regime falls in 2026? resolve?
- Cuban regime falls in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Cuban regime falls in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.