PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 18%+0.0%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.8K
Liquidity
$37.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 19.0%
Spread
11.8%
Wide spread7d Change
+1.5%
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Mar 10, 26, 11:58 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes18%
Large trades
$1.6k87.0%POLYMARKETNo657657575d ago
POLYMARKETNo657657575d agoVolume trend
$9.8kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba.
- This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC.
- A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
- Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice.