Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 26, 6:23 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
PolymarketWill Iran's regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill USA change Iran regime
Manifold MarketsIf Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessRules
-Resolves N/A if Iran's regime does NOT fall in 2026.
- -Resolves Yes if Iran's regime falls, and during the previous day (ET timezone) the highest price for the market below is <= 50%.
- -Otherwise resolves No. (https://manifold.markets/embed/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026)
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise? resolve?
- If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: -Resolves N/A if Iran's regime does NOT fall in 2026.