Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 52.4%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 6, 26, 11:11 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
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Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.
- Resolves NO if the regime falls by Dec 31, 2027 AND consensus attributes the proximate trigger to internal causes alone: domestic protest, internal succession dispute, or economic collapse without external action.
- Resolves N/A if the regime does not fall by Dec 31, 2027 (parent question resolves NO).
- “Proximate trigger” = the precipitating event in the final 30 days before the regime’s loss of sovereign authority.
- Background pressure (sanctions in place for years, ongoing protests, etc.) does not count as the trigger unless it sharply escalates in that final window.