PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 89%
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4.9K
Liquidity
$48.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.2% / 11.9%
Spread
1.7 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+1.7 pts
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 5:46 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes11%
Volume trend
$4.9kJul 227d of dataJul 28
Related Markets
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
$855.4Yes: 75%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
$224Yes: 88.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
$72.1Yes: 75.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Obama arrested before 2027?
$13.5Yes: 3%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by which date?
$0December 31,: 14%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
$10KBarack Obama: 6%
KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
California duo accused of laundering crypto from fentanyl and meth salesCrypto News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
LayerZero Executor Wallets Undergo Security Breach, $2.4 Million DrainedBlockchain Reporter
California pair charged with laundering crypto proceeds from darknet fentanyl salesThe Block
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
EU Sanctions 'Stern,' Trickbot Ransomware Leader Tied to $300MBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.