PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityJohn Brennan 28%-1.0%Leader of 24 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$448.7
Liquidity
$222.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.3% / 3.9%
Spread
18.2%
Wide spread7d Change
+1.3%
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
John Brennan28%
Compare venues· John Brennan
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall76% match · verified | High | 36% | +8pt | $1.6K | $358.7K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Medium | 28% | 0pt | $448.7 | $222.7K | 21 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will be arrested in 2026?
0.3%5mo
36%
+5.0%26%
23%
+21 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1M
24h Vol$1.6K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$449Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.