PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
John Brennan 22%+1.0ptLeader of 24 outcomes
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$601.6
Liquidity
$351.9K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
13
7d Change
-3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
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PolymarketWill Tucker Carlson be arrested in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Who will be arrested in 2026? · John Brennan 22%
Open markets
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- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+2.4pt97%
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+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $995.5K
- 24h Vol
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- Jon Ossoff17.2%
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- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
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- 24h Vol
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.3M
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- Democratic Party-1.0pt84.8%
- Republican Party-2.0pt15.2%
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- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $247.6K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be arrested before 2027??
- Polymarket prices John Brennan at 22% as of September 9, 2026.
- How is Who will be arrested before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Who will be arrested before 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.