PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityJohn Brennan 49%+12.5%Leader of 24 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$140.5
Liquidity
$203.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
20.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-1.0%
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Trends
Selected outcome
John Brennan49%
Also available on Kalshi
Who will be arrested before 2027?
6mo
49%
32%
7%
+22 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$20.3K
24h Vol$9
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.