PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%-0.1pt
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.2
Liquidity
$23.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.7% / 3.0%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 6:41 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Obama arrested before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Obama arrested before 2027? resolve?
- Obama arrested before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Obama arrested before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.