PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 3%
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$158.1
Liquidity
$25.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.8% / 3.1%
Spread
10.7%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.5%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 6:41 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes3%
Volume trend
$158Jul 324d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.