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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Who will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?

Who will be arrested before 2027?

One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsCrime & Justice6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
John Brennan
John Brennan 49%
Leader of 25 outcomes
Market quality

60 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$6.9

Liquidity

$5.4K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

48.0% / 50.0%

Spread

4.2%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Jul 23, 25, 2:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

John Brennan49%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

Who will be arrested before 2027?

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan
John Brennan
+22.5%57%
Susan Rice
Susan Rice
-7.0%48%
Lisa Cook
Lisa Cook
-6.0%42%

+21 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$119.3K
24h Vol$128.5
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied.
  • To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
  • If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,612.98+1.75%EthereumETH$1,652.45+1.40%SolanaSOL$65.11+0.90%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.09%XRPXRP$1.12-0.25%BNBBNB$595.56+1.31%

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Rules

If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied.
  • To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
  • If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.