KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBarack Obama 6%+0.3%Leader of 24 outcomes
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
$358.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 6.1%
Spread
1.7%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Jul 23, 25, 2:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Barack Obama6%
Compare venues· John Brennan
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 36% | +8pt | $1.6K | $358.7K | 27 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket76% match · verified | Medium | 28% | 0pt | $448.7 | $223.6K | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Who will be arrested before 2027?
0.3%
+13.0%38%
-1.0%28%
20%
+21 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$223.2K
24h Vol$448.7
POLYMARKETRules
If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied.
- To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
- If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied.
- To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
- If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.