KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
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Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 4%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2027 4%Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$47.4K
High open interestMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 20, 26, 7:00 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before Jan 1, 20274%
Before Nov 1, 20262%
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiWho will be arrested before 2027?
PolymarketObama arrested before 2027?
PolymarketKanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?
PolymarketWill Tucker Carlson be arrested in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Fox NewsSemaforThe InformationCNBCthe Associated PressThe Wall Street JournalCNNPoliticoMSNBCThe Washington PostReutersThe New York Times
Rules for each outcome
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means: Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant Being formally booked or processed following detention The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion: Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and fo…
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means: Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant Being formally booked or processed following detention The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion: Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and fo…
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means: Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant Being formally booked or processed following detention The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion: Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and fo…
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Netanyahu arrested by…? · December 31 5%