Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastCrime & Justice4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.4%
Forecasters
110
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMay 20, 24, 5:59 PM UTCDec 16, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor is seeking an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu.
- Will Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or tried for war crimes or crimes against humanity?
- It will not be sufficient for this market if an arrest is made by someone without the power to enforce the arrest or detain him (eg. an activist accosts him and says that they’re making an arrest but his security staff get him away from the activist) or for him to be tried in absentia by a court who cannot enforce any ruling.
- If Netanyahu dies without ever having been arrested, detained or tried for these crimes, the market will resolve to NO.
- I don’t think that this resolution will be subjective, but just in case some edge case happens and it is subjective, I won’t be trading on this market.
- Related market:
Open markets
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes? resolve?
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes? is scheduled to resolve on December 16, 2030.
- How is Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor is seeking an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu.