Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
1.3 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin AmericaCrime & Justice2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar · —
Loading selected book…
Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored reference
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar 17%Leader of 8 outcomes
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar 17%Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$54.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán SalazarSpread
—
Comments
2
7d Change
-9.5 pts
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 1:24 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Audias Flores-SilvaWon
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Market depth · Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
Loading selected book…
Book received (not venue quote time): —
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by which date?
PolymarketArizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?
PolymarketThe Five Proud Boys Leaders get one dollar or more compensatory or punitive damages.
Manifold MarketsWhich leaders will meet before 2027?
KalshiWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiWho will be arrested before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.