What are the current odds for Barack Obama arrested before January 1, 2029?

Manifold Markets prices No at 87.8% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Barack Obama arrested before January 1, 2029 resolve?

Barack Obama arrested before January 1, 2029 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 87.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 19 hours ago

Stale

Aug 7, 25, 12:07 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market assesses the likelihood of former President Barack Obama being arrested on or before January 1, 2029.

Recent political developments have seen accusations and calls for legal action against Obama, including claims of treason and espionage.
However, as of August 7, 2025, no formal charges or arrests have been made.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if credible reports from reputable news organizations confirm Obama's arrest by the specified date; otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'.