Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 7, 25, 12:07 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketObama federally charged before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market assesses the likelihood of former President Barack Obama being arrested on or before January 1, 2029.
- Recent political developments have seen accusations and calls for legal action against Obama, including claims of treason and espionage.
- However, as of August 7, 2025, no formal charges or arrests have been made.
- This market will resolve to 'Yes' if credible reports from reputable news organizations confirm Obama's arrest by the specified date; otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Barack Obama arrested before January 1, 2029?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Barack Obama arrested before January 1, 2029 resolve?
- Barack Obama arrested before January 1, 2029 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Barack Obama arrested before January 1, 2029 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market assesses the likelihood of former President Barack Obama being arrested on or before January 1, 2029.