Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 88%
Forecasters
62
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 6:13 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
- This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it.
- Qualifying scenarios may include:
- Military coup
- Voluntary abdication of power
- Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority