PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 18%-3.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11.1K
Liquidity
$104.5K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
7
7d Change
-4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 9:29 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?
PolymarketSaudi airspace closed by which date?
PolymarketIran full airspace closure by which date?
PolymarketIran full airspace closure by which date?
FutuurBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait closed by which date?
FutuurRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below.
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region.
- A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
- The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt65%
- October 31-5.0pt34%
- September 30-3.0pt7%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31M
- 24h Vol
- $754.1K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $68.4M
- 24h Vol
- $595.1K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No-5.0pt75.3%
- Yes+5.0pt24.8%
- Total Vol
- $12.5M
- 24h Vol
- $469.6K
POLYMARKETSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- October 31+12.3pt88%
- September 30+27.5pt57%
- September 22-0.5pt1%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms+0.4pt13%
- Save the Children-0.1pt10%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
+28 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029+3.0pt73%
- Before Jul 1, 2028+3.0pt68%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+4.0pt56%
+10 more outcomes
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)?
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 18% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) resolve?
- Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.