2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDemocrats, 8 to 10% 22.1%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$6.5K
Liquidity
$490.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Feb 4, 26, 3:00 PMNov 3, 27, 1:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democrats, 6 to 8%22%
Compare venues· Democrats, 8 to 10%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 25% | — | $6.5K | $490.1K | 24 minutes ago | |
 PredictIt87% match · verified | — | 25% | — | — | — | 24 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
What will be the national vote margin in the 2026 House midterms?
8mo
25%
25%
0%
+5 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.4k98.2%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No8d ago
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No8d ago$2.0k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No8d ago
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No8d ago$1.2k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No8d ago
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No8d agoVolume trend
$6.5kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.