2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democrats, 8 to 10% 22.9%-1.0ptLeader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
86 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$13.6K
Liquidity
$1.2M
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Feb 4, 26, 3:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Clerk of the House
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)?
- Kalshi prices Democrats, 8 to 10% at 23% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) resolve?
- 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) listed?
- The same question is also listed on PredictIt.