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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. 2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

1.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics1y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Republicans win
Republicans win 15%-1.0%
Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality

60 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$187

Liquidity

$3.4K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

14.0% / 15.0%

Spread

7.1%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Feb 4, 26, 3:00 PMNov 3, 27, 1:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Republicans win15%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

6.0%4mo
Other
Other
46%
Democrats 8-10%
Democrats 8-10%
-0.5%19%
Democrats 6-8%
Democrats 6-8%
+6.0%18%

+11 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$61.3K
24h Vol$10.4K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.

Kalshi
  • House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
  • The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
  • No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Rules

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.

Kalshi
  • House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
  • The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
  • No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.