KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbdul El-Sayed 74%+4.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$274.3K
Liquidity
$2.2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
26.0% / 27.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Mar 28, 25, 2:00 PMNov 3, 26, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Haley Stevens26%
Compare venues· Abdul El-Sayed
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 74% | 0pt | $274.3K | $2.2M | 30 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket90% match · verified | High | 77% | +3pt | $105.2K | $376.7K | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur90% match · linked | Low | 70% | -4pt | $0 | $904.8 | 30 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets88% match · verified | — | 77% | +3pt | — | — | 30 minutes ago | Open → |
 PredictIt90% match · verified | — | 71% | -3pt | — | — | 30 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · linked | — | 82% | +8pt | — | — | 30 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 73% | -1pt | — | — | 30 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
5.5 pts5d
+5.0pt76.2%
-5.5pt23.8%
0%
+17 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.5M
24h Vol$105.2K
POLYMARKETAlso available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate nomination?
3.0 pts9mo
-3.0pt71%
+4.0pt30%
1%
+2 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 2026 Senate election?
8d
81.5%
17.8%
0.5%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast33 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Futuur
Winner of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary
5d
69.3%
29.7%
1%
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$620.7
24h Vol$0
FUTUURAlso available on Manifold Markets
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner?
5d
+6.6pt76.8%
-6.6pt22.9%
0.3%
Community forecast68 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Democratic Primary in Michigan's 2026 Senate Election?
6d
73%
26.7%
0.3%
Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If Mallory McMorrow wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sarah Anthony wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Abdul El-Sayed wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Dana Nessel wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Kristen McDonald Rivet wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Haley Stevens wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.5k76.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes6h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes6h ago$2.3k77.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes13h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes13h ago$2.7k75.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes17h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes17h ago$2.3k75.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes17h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes17h ago$1.1k75.0%KALSHIHaley Stevens — No19h ago
KALSHIHaley Stevens — No19h ago$1.1k74.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes21h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes21h ago$2.1k68.8%POLYMARKETWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — YesLeRoiSoleilyesterday
POLYMARKETWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — YesLeRoiSoleilyesterday$1.6k64.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes2d ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes2d agoVolume trend
$274.3kJul 228d of dataJul 29
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If Mallory McMorrow wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sarah Anthony wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Abdul El-Sayed wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Dana Nessel wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Kristen McDonald Rivet wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Haley Stevens wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.