Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastAbdul El-Sayed 76.8%+6.6ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
68
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Mar 15, 26, 1:43 AMAug 4, 26, 1:43 AM
Trends
0.3%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Haley Stevens23%
Compare venues· Abdul El-Sayed
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall88% match · verified | High | 76% | — | $273.6K | $2.2M | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket100% match · auto | High | 77% | — | $64.8K | $433.2K | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur100% match · auto | Low | 70% | — | $0 | $904.8 | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 77% | — | — | — | 22 minutes ago | |
 PredictIt88% match · linked | — | 72% | — | — | — | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets88% match · linked | — | 82% | — | — | — | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets75% match · linked | — | 73% | — | — | — | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
5.5 pts5d
+5.0pt76.2%
-5.5pt23.8%
0%
+17 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.4M
24h Vol$64.8K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Futuur
Winner of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary
5d
69.3%
29.7%
1%
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$620.7
24h Vol$0
FUTUURAlso available on Kalshi
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
4.0 pts3mo
+5.0pt74.5%
-4.0pt25.5%
+0.1pt0%
+6 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$4.3M
24h Vol$273.6K
KALSHIAlso available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate nomination?
7.0 pts9mo
+7.0pt72%
-7.0pt28%
1%
+2 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 2026 Senate election?
8d
81.5%
17.8%
0.5%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast33 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Democratic Primary in Michigan's 2026 Senate Election?
6d
73%
26.7%
0.3%
Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
resolves YES to the winner of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.5k76.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes5h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes5h ago$2.3k77.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes11h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes11h ago$2.7k75.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes15h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes15h ago$2.3k75.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes16h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes16h ago$1.1k75.0%KALSHIHaley Stevens — No17h ago
KALSHIHaley Stevens — No17h ago$1.1k74.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes20h ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes20h ago$2.1k68.8%POLYMARKETWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — YesLeRoiSoleilyesterday
POLYMARKETWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — YesLeRoiSoleilyesterday$1.6k64.0%KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes2d ago
KALSHIAbdul El-Sayed — Yes2d agoVolume trend
$654Jul 921d of dataJul 29
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resolves YES to the winner of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary