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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

2.5% (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 5%+0.0%
Market quality

100 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$10.5K

Liquidity

$25.8K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

4.8% / 4.9%

Spread

2.1%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jun 9, 26, 1:08 AMJul 31, 26, 7:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes5%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
  • The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
  • The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.