PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 100%
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.1K
Liquidity
$57.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.2% / 0.3%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jun 9, 26, 12:57 AMJul 31, 26, 7:59 PM
Trends
0%
100%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes0%
Large trades
$3.7k99.0%POLYMARKETNoelmcap223d ago
POLYMARKETNoelmcap223d agoVolume trend
$3.1kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.