What will be the national vote margin in the 2026 House midterms?
4.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionUS Politics2026 US Midterms5mo
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Democrats 6-9% 41%-4.0ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Democrats 6-9% 41%-4.0ptMethodology
Retail prediction exchange
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Updated 1 minute ago
Jun 26, 26, 3:22 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentages of the total popular vote cast in favor of Republican and Democratic candidates for all 2026 U.S. Representative general elections.
The percentage of the popular vote won by each party shall be determined by dividing the number of votes the party wins by the total number of valid votes for all ballot-listed and write-in candidates, as first officially reported by the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.
The percentage of the popular vote won by each party shall be determined by dividing the number of votes the party wins by the total number of valid votes for all ballot-listed and write-in candidates, as first officially reported by the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.
- The difference between parties will be calculated from unrounded percentages.
- Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
- If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) · Democrats, 8 to 10% 24%