PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityOther 46%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.5K
Liquidity
$391.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
5.9%
Moderate spread7d Change
+3.5%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 12:29 AMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Other46%
Also available on Kalshi
2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
1.0%1y
-1.0%15%
+1.0%19%
+1.0%28%
+7 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4.4K
24h Vol$216.6
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election.
- The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S.
- House candidates in the election.
- Only votes cast for candidates for U.S.
- Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election.
- The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S.
- House candidates in the election.
- Only votes cast for candidates for U.S.
- Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.