2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
9.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityOther 46%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.6K
Liquidity
$194.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
33.0% / 34.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+9.0 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 12:27 AMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Other46%
Volume trend
$9.6kJul 420d of dataJul 28
Related Markets
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
$239.5KDonald J. Trump: 3%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Trump out as President by July 31?
$62.2KYes: 0%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
KS-03 Democratic nominee?
$5.6KSarah Preu: 2%KALSHI
KALSHI
Louisiana Senate winner?
$3.6KJulia Letlow: 89%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will win the 2026 election for California's 14th Congressional District
$3.1KMatt Ortega: 0.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner
$2.3KHaley Stevens: 93%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election.
- The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S.
- House candidates in the election.
- Only votes cast for candidates for U.S.
- Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.