2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms7d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Democrats 8-10% · —
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Stored reference
Democrats 8-10% 25.2%Leader of 13 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Democrats 8-10% 25.2%Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$575.3K
High liquidityOpen interest
$18.2K
Bid / Ask
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Democrats 8-10%Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 12:27 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
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- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Market depth · Democrats 8-10%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election.
- The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election.
- Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House.