Who will win the 2026 election for California's 14th Congressional District
1.8 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics2026 US Midterms1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastAisha Wahab 92.8%+1.8ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.8 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 26, 5:17 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Resolves based on the election outcome per major media calls or secretary of state.
- Follows the district number through any redistricting
- Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market is for California's 14th Congressional District (the title previously incorrectly stated 11th district, but this was a typo).
- Update 2026-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on the regularly scheduled 2026 election, not any special election that may occur beforehand.
