KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic by 9.0% or more 19.3%Leader of 20 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$806.2
Liquidity
$39.1K
High liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 20, 26, 6:00 PM UTCMay 6, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
PolymarketHow much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich Party will win the House popular vote in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:United States Congress
- The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress.
- If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used.
- If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used.
- Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2028 popular vote margin of victory??
- Kalshi prices Democratic by 9.0% or more at 19% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 2028 popular vote margin of victory? resolve?
- 2028 popular vote margin of victory? is scheduled to resolve on May 6, 2029.
- How is 2028 popular vote margin of victory? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.