2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
0.1 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-Off2026 US MidtermsUS PoliticsElection3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocrats, ≥4% 90%+0.1ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+40.0 pts
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Oct 25, 26, 8:10 PM UTCFeb 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsRules
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03-al10
- Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
- Kalshi's rules: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.