If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
US PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast0-0.5% 69.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 12, 25, 12:54 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the party does not end up being created, this market will resolve n/a.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win??
- Manifold Markets prices 0-0.5% at 70% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? resolve?
- If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2027.
- How is If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If the party does not end up being created, this market will resolve n/a.