If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win??

Manifold Markets prices 0-0.5% at 69.7% as of October 28, 2026.

When does If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? resolve?

If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2027.

How is If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If the party does not end up being created, this market will resolve n/a.

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+4.7pt100%
• 25 bps decrease0%
• 25 bps increase-4.5pt0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$101.7M

24h Vol

$21.8M

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. House?

• Democratic Party+0.3pt91%
• Republican Party-0.3pt9.1%

Total Vol

$77.4M

24h Vol

$3.1M

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico+1.0pt66.5%
• Ken Paxton33.5%

Total Vol

$47.3M

24h Vol

$2.6M

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep-1.0pt62.5%
• D-House, R-Senate28.5%
• Republicans sweep8.9%

KALSHI

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

• Karen Bass+11.0pt54.5%
• Nithya Raman-11.0pt45.5%

Total Vol

$44.9M

24h Vol

$2M

KALSHI

Texas Governor winner?

• Greg Abbott-2.0pt64.5%
• Gina Hinojosa+3.0pt35.5%

Total Vol

$8.4M

24h Vol

$1.5M

• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
• Florida Governor winner?
• 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
• South Carolina Senate winner?
• Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
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• California Governor winner? (Person)
• Fed Decision in December?
• Which party will win the House in 2026?
• 2026 Texas Senate Race
• Minnesota Senate winner?