PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
125-130m 22.3%-0.5ptLeader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$18.5
Liquidity
$126.8K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.8 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Feb 20, 26, 5:41 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRules
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
- Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — 2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout? · 125 million and above 22%
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+2.5pt38.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+8.2pt54%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-9.0pt44%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt2%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.3%
- Gavin Newsom14.3%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1M
KALSHIMaine Senate winner?
- Troy Jackson67.3%
- Susan Collins32.7%
- Total Vol
- $5.3M
- 24h Vol
- $588.1K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt85.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.8%
- Total Vol
- $29.6M
- 24h Vol
- $446.8K
KALSHIOhio Senate winner?
- Sherrod Brown-2.0pt51.5%
- Jon Husted+1.0pt48.5%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $416.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2026 Midterms: House Turnout?
- Polymarket prices 125-130m at 22% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does 2026 Midterms: House Turnout resolve?
- 2026 Midterms: House Turnout is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is 2026 Midterms: House Turnout settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Where else is 2026 Midterms: House Turnout listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.