2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms4mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:24 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
R+0.9 to D+0.9 · —
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Stored price
R+0.9 to D+0.9 28%Leader of 9 outcomes
R+0.9 to D+0.9 28%Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$3.4K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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R+0.9 to D+0.9Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 1, 26, 6:00 PM UTCMar 1, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · R+0.9 to D+0.9
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Rules
If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin is the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election, as reported by the Clerk of the House, with each percentage taken over all votes cast; the margin is calculated from unrounded percentages and then rounded to one decimal place. The reference margin is the VoteHub 2026 generic congressional ballot margin (Democratic minus Republican, time-weighted) as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026. The value is the national House popular vote margin minus the reference margin: positive if Democrats outperform the reference margin and negative if Republicans do. Each range includes both of its endpoints.
Rules for each outcome
- R+0.9 to D+0.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+1 to D+2.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 1 and 2.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+1 to R+2.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -2.9 and -1 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+3 to R+4.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -4.9 and -3 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+3 to D+4.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 3 and 4.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+7 or more
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is at least 7 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+5 to R+6.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -6.9 and -5 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+7 or more
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is below -6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+5 to D+6.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 5 and 6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
