Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?
One-OffUS PoliticsElectionPoliticsTech2026 US Midterms6d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
56
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 25, 1:00 AM UTCNov 5, 26, 12:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
[tweet]Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%).
- This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself.
- For the purpose of this market, these are considered central examples of the kind of clear backing that would resolve this market positively.