Will Musk-backed third-party candidate(s) win any seats in Congress by the end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 96.8%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 5, 25, 9:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if a candidate who is neither a Democrat or a Republican, and is supported by Elon Musk, is elected to the US Senate or House of Representatives by the end of 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
