KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2028 23%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2028 23%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5
Open interest
$1.6K
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Market data
Updated 41 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 11:32 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tucker Carlson be arrested in 2026?
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PredictItWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExRules
If a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
