KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 86%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$806.5
Low liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 14.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 11:32 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tucker Carlson be arrested in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will Tucker Carlson interview in 2026 (Starting March 1st)
Manifold MarketsWill Tucker Carlson and Graham Platner meet before election day?
Manifold MarketsWill Tucker Carlson announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
If a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tucker Carlson form a third party this year??
- Kalshi prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tucker Carlson form a third party this year? resolve?
- Will Tucker Carlson form a third party this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Tucker Carlson form a third party this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.