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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
National 0-5% 38%+1.9ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.6 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 16, 26, 11:26 PM UTCDec 19, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves the same as: NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
- [link preview]A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
- The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes.
- Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election.