Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastPartial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028 64%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 7:42 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 6:29 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves based on the international recognition status of Yemen's political entities by December 31, 2028:
- Yes: Two or more independent states achieve formal international recognition (e.g., UN membership, diplomatic recognition from major powers).
- This includes scenarios where South Arabia, a Houthi state, or other entities gain recognized statehood.
- Partial: De facto territorial separation exists with functioning parallel governments and institutions, but no formal international recognition of independent statehood is achieved.
- No: Yemen remains unified under a single internationally recognized government, regardless of internal fragmentation or de facto autonomous zones.
