KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Greg Murphy 82.7%-2.0ptVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Greg Murphy 82.7%-2.0ptMarket quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1
Open interest
$2.9K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
81.0% / 86.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 1:08 AM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the House member sworn in for NC-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Rules for each outcome
- Greg Murphy
- If the House member sworn in for NC-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Raymond Smith Jr.
- If the House member sworn in for NC-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Greg Murphy (R) is 86%. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Greg Murphy (R) 86% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
- Also available on Polymarket — NC-03 House Election Winner · Greg Murphy (R) 86%
- Also available on Gemini — North Carolina-03 House Winner · Greg Murphy 50%
