KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
John Thune 47.1%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.7K
Low liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 10, 26, 11:59 PM UTCJan 3, 28, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the named outcome wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Senate
- Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader.
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader??
- Kalshi prices John Thune at 47% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader? resolve?
- 120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2028.
- How is 120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.