If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 72.8%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 24, 22, 3:59 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves NA if NATO troops never enter the war.
- Close date updated to 2025-01-01 6:59 pm