Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastMay 31 0%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 4:14 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
October 3114%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
0.5%5mo
25%
+0.5%13%
0%
+1 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$907K
24h Vol$5.3K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
3.5%5mo
-0.5%36%
-3.5%19%
-1.5%8%
+2 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.7M
24h Vol$42.6K
POLYMARKETRules
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.0k90.6%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka3d ago
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka3d ago$1.1k60.0%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius321d ago
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius321d ago$5.3k99.8%POLYMARKETNonedsta26d ago
POLYMARKETNonedsta26d agoVolume trend
$60Jul 184d of dataJul 23
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Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.